000 WTNT80 EGRR 230418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.08.2015 TROPICAL STORM DANNY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 54.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2015 15.3N 54.1W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2015 15.2N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 15.7N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 16.0N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 160.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP032015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2015 14.8N 160.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2015 15.3N 163.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 16.3N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 17.3N 167.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 18.4N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 19.5N 168.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 20.4N 167.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 20.6N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 19.7N 166.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 18.5N 166.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 17.5N 167.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 16.7N 168.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 16.2N 169.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM LOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 178.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2015 18.7N 178.8W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2015 20.0N 179.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 21.7N 179.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 23.1N 178.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 24.8N 176.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 26.5N 174.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 29.2N 174.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 31.9N 176.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 35.0N 179.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 38.4N 176.2E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2015 42.0N 173.4E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.7N 128.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2015 12.7N 128.7W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2015 12.7N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 13.1N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 13.5N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 13.6N 129.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 13.9N 130.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2015 14.0N 131.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 14.2N 132.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2015 14.9N 134.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 16.1N 136.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2015 17.2N 138.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 18.1N 140.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.2N 42.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2015 14.2N 42.5W WEAK 00UTC 25.08.2015 14.3N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 14.8N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 15.6N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 15.8N 55.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 16.6N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 17.6N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 18.9N 63.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 20.5N 65.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2015 22.2N 66.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.1N 99.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2015 10.1N 99.2W WEAK 12UTC 25.08.2015 10.3N 102.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 11.0N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 11.3N 109.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 11.9N 112.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2015 12.7N 115.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2015 13.6N 117.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2015 14.2N 120.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2015 14.7N 122.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.5N 32.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2015 16.5N 32.5W WEAK 12UTC 26.08.2015 17.1N 35.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 17.9N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 18.6N 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2015 20.3N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2015 22.0N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2015 24.1N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230418