000 WTNT80 EGRR 211618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.08.2015 HURRICANE DANNY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 47.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2015 13.9N 47.6W WEAK 00UTC 22.08.2015 14.5N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 15.1N 51.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 15.2N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2015 15.3N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 15.9N 59.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 16.3N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 16.6N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04C ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 176.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2015 15.4N 176.9W WEAK 00UTC 22.08.2015 16.5N 176.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 17.2N 177.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 18.5N 179.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2015 19.7N 179.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 21.2N 179.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 22.5N 180.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2015 23.6N 178.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2015 24.7N 176.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2015 26.9N 173.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2015 30.3N 172.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2015 32.8N 175.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2015 33.6N 177.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 150.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP032015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2015 12.6N 150.9W WEAK 00UTC 22.08.2015 13.7N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 15.3N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 15.7N 160.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2015 16.2N 162.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 16.4N 164.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 18.0N 165.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 18.9N 165.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 19.8N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 21.0N 164.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 22.2N 163.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 22.3N 162.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 21.9N 161.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.8N 43.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2015 14.8N 43.9W WEAK 00UTC 25.08.2015 15.5N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 15.5N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 16.8N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2015 17.7N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 18.3N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 19.1N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.5N 97.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2015 9.2N 98.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2015 9.2N 102.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2015 9.6N 105.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2015 10.3N 109.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 10.7N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 11.5N 115.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.2N 130.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.08.2015 14.2N 130.6W WEAK 12UTC 26.08.2015 14.4N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2015 14.5N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 15.2N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 37.1N 47.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2015 37.1N 47.7W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2015 34.5N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2015 33.6N 47.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211618