000
WTNT80 EGRR 201617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.08.2015

        TROPICAL STORM DANNY      ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N  44.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 20.08.2015  12.4N  44.3W   MODERATE
 00UTC 21.08.2015  13.0N  45.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.08.2015  13.9N  46.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.08.2015  14.8N  48.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.08.2015  15.6N  50.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.08.2015  16.0N  52.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.08.2015  16.1N  54.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.08.2015  16.6N  56.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.08.2015  17.1N  59.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.08.2015  17.8N  61.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.08.2015  18.5N  63.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.08.2015  19.4N  66.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.08.2015  20.0N  68.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 11.7N 148.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 21.08.2015  12.3N 148.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 21.08.2015  13.4N 151.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.08.2015  14.0N 154.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.08.2015  15.2N 158.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.08.2015  15.8N 161.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.08.2015  16.2N 162.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.08.2015  16.8N 163.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.08.2015  17.5N 163.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.08.2015  18.4N 163.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.08.2015  19.4N 163.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.08.2015  20.3N 162.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.08.2015  20.8N 161.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.5N 115.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 24.08.2015  16.6N 116.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 25.08.2015  17.4N 118.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.08.2015  17.9N 120.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.08.2015  18.2N 123.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.08.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 27.1N 175.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 26.08.2015  29.1N 175.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.08.2015  32.9N 176.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 201617