000 WTNT80 EGRR 191618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2015 TROPICAL STORM DANNY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 40.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2015 11.1N 40.8W MODERATE 00UTC 20.08.2015 12.0N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2015 12.2N 45.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 13.2N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 14.2N 49.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 15.3N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 16.3N 52.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 17.0N 54.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2015 17.5N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 18.5N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 19.7N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 21.4N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 23.2N 64.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 37.3N 63.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2015 37.3N 65.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.08.2015 37.2N 67.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 37.1N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.0N 146.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2015 10.0N 146.7W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2015 11.2N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 12.3N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 12.8N 152.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 13.5N 155.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 14.4N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 15.4N 162.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2015 15.6N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 15.8N 166.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 16.1N 167.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 17.0N 167.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 18.5N 167.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.9N 178.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2015 14.9N 178.2W WEAK 12UTC 22.08.2015 16.0N 179.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 17.3N 179.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2015 19.3N 179.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2015 21.1N 178.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2015 22.5N 179.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2015 23.4N 180.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 24.5N 178.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 14.7N 116.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2015 15.2N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2015 16.0N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2015 16.7N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191617