000 WTNT80 EGRR 170418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 118.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2015 19.7N 118.7W WEAK 12UTC 17.08.2015 21.8N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2015 23.7N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2015 25.3N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2015 27.0N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2015 28.0N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2015 28.7N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2015 28.9N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 30.0N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 30.5N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 30.1N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 29.7N 137.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 29.2N 137.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 8.0N 149.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2015 8.6N 149.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2015 9.0N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2015 9.5N 148.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2015 10.3N 148.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2015 11.0N 149.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2015 11.4N 150.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 11.7N 151.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 12.0N 153.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 12.5N 156.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 12.8N 158.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 13.6N 161.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.0N 141.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2015 11.0N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2015 11.2N 140.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2015 13.2N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2015 14.4N 142.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 15.6N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 16.7N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 17.9N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 19.3N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 20.1N 150.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.3N 42.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2015 11.4N 43.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2015 11.8N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2015 12.3N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 13.5N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 15.0N 49.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 16.7N 51.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 18.1N 52.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2015 19.2N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 30.3N 168.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2015 30.4N 169.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2015 30.8N 170.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2015 31.6N 172.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170417