000 WTNT80 EGRR 160418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.08.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 113.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2015 17.4N 113.7W WEAK 12UTC 16.08.2015 18.4N 115.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2015 19.9N 119.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2015 22.2N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2015 24.5N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2015 26.8N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2015 28.5N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.5N 141.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.08.2015 10.2N 142.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.08.2015 11.2N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2015 12.5N 143.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2015 13.0N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 14.2N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 15.4N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 16.6N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 34.8N 114.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2015 34.8N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2015 34.5N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2015 35.7N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.2N 42.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2015 12.3N 43.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2015 12.2N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 13.5N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 15.0N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 16.4N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 9.8N 152.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2015 9.8N 152.3W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2015 10.0N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 10.1N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 9.7N 154.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 10.5N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 29.0N 163.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.08.2015 29.8N 165.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2015 30.2N 168.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2015 30.3N 171.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2015 31.1N 173.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.5N 167.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2015 14.5N 167.9W WEAK 00UTC 22.08.2015 16.5N 168.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160417