000
WTNT80 EGRR 021617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2015

             HURRICANE GUILLERMO  ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 143.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.08.2015  14.5N 143.4W   MODERATE
 00UTC 03.08.2015  15.0N 145.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.08.2015  15.5N 147.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.08.2015  16.1N 148.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.08.2015  16.4N 151.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.08.2015  16.9N 153.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.08.2015  17.5N 155.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.08.2015  18.1N 156.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.08.2015  18.6N 157.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.08.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 35.2N  73.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 05.08.2015  36.5N  71.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.08.2015  37.9N  65.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.08.2015  41.5N  57.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 07.08.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.1N 143.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 08.08.2015  14.7N 145.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 021617