000
WTNT80 EGRR 281617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.07.2015

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E        ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 128.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.07.2015  17.0N 128.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.07.2015  16.6N 131.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.07.2015  16.5N 133.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.07.2015  15.9N 135.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.07.2015  16.1N 138.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.07.2015  16.2N 140.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.07.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 35.5N  63.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.07.2015  35.5N  63.7W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.07.2015  37.3N  63.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.07.2015  39.5N  58.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.07.2015  42.2N  55.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.07.2015  45.0N  53.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.07.2015  44.9N  51.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.07.2015  44.6N  44.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.08.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 29.9N  78.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 29.07.2015  29.9N  78.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 30.07.2015  29.8N  78.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.07.2015  30.3N  77.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.07.2015  30.8N  77.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.07.2015  31.8N  78.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.08.2015  32.2N  78.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.08.2015  33.0N  78.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.08.2015  34.5N  75.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.08.2015  38.3N  71.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 03.08.2015  42.0N  64.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.08.2015  45.3N  56.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 :  9.7N 126.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 31.07.2015   9.6N 128.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.07.2015  11.4N 130.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.08.2015  12.5N 134.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.08.2015  13.0N 137.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.08.2015  13.7N 140.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.08.2015  14.0N 143.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.08.2015  15.0N 146.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.08.2015  15.4N 148.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 27.0N  86.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.08.2015  26.5N  87.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.08.2015  27.7N  85.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.08.2015  27.7N  84.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.08.2015  29.0N  85.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 281617