000
WTNT80 EGRR 271617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.07.2015

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.8N  52.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 27.07.2015  33.8N  52.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 28.07.2015  37.0N  47.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.07.2015  38.6N  44.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.07.2015  39.5N  41.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.07.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  12 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 34.4N  67.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 28.07.2015  34.4N  67.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 28.07.2015  35.4N  64.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 29.07.2015  36.1N  61.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.07.2015  37.6N  58.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.07.2015  40.3N  54.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.07.2015  44.5N  51.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.07.2015  46.1N  48.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.07.2015  47.7N  44.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.08.2015  48.4N  38.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.08.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 31.6N  77.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.07.2015  31.6N  76.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 31.07.2015  31.9N  76.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.07.2015  32.3N  77.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.08.2015  32.8N  77.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.08.2015  34.1N  76.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 02.08.2015  37.2N  72.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 02.08.2015  41.4N  67.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.2N 125.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.07.2015  11.2N 125.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 31.07.2015  12.0N 127.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.07.2015  13.2N 130.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.08.2015  13.6N 132.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.08.2015  13.9N 135.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.08.2015  14.7N 138.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.08.2015  15.2N 140.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 271617