000 WTNT80 EGRR 250418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.07.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 119.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.07.2015 23.4N 119.3W WEAK 12UTC 25.07.2015 24.0N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2015 24.4N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2015 24.8N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2015 24.7N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.9N 59.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.07.2015 33.9N 59.2W WEAK 00UTC 27.07.2015 35.4N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2015 36.7N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2015 38.8N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2015 41.1N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2015 42.3N 35.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2015 42.9N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.3N 129.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.07.2015 13.3N 129.7W WEAK 00UTC 28.07.2015 14.2N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2015 14.8N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2015 15.6N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2015 16.1N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2015 16.6N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 17.2N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2015 17.6N 148.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 10.1N 159.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.07.2015 10.1N 159.6W WEAK 12UTC 28.07.2015 10.8N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2015 12.2N 163.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2015 13.4N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2015 14.9N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 16.5N 169.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2015 18.1N 170.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 9.8N 123.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.07.2015 9.8N 123.2W WEAK 00UTC 30.07.2015 9.8N 126.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 10.3N 129.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2015 11.3N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.4N 84.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.07.2015 29.4N 84.3W WEAK 00UTC 30.07.2015 29.8N 84.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 30.0N 83.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2015 29.5N 83.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250418