000 WTNT80 EGRR 241719 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.07.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 117.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.07.2015 21.0N 117.5W WEAK 00UTC 25.07.2015 22.5N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2015 23.7N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2015 23.9N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2015 24.7N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 40.2N 50.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.07.2015 40.2N 50.8W WEAK 12UTC 26.07.2015 43.8N 44.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2015 45.9N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2015 46.7N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2015 46.7N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2015 45.5N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 9.1N 158.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.07.2015 9.1N 159.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.07.2015 9.4N 162.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2015 10.7N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2015 11.9N 167.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2015 12.8N 169.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2015 13.8N 172.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 15.5N 174.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 27.7N 84.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.07.2015 27.7N 84.5W WEAK 00UTC 28.07.2015 29.2N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2015 29.6N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2015 30.8N 84.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2015 30.6N 84.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2015 30.7N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 31.7N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.2N 130.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.07.2015 14.2N 130.9W WEAK 12UTC 28.07.2015 14.3N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2015 14.6N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2015 14.7N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2015 14.7N 141.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 15.1N 145.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.7N 122.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.07.2015 10.7N 122.1W WEAK 00UTC 30.07.2015 10.8N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 11.0N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241719