000 WTNT80 EGRR 100418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.07.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 146.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.07.2015 21.1N 146.9W WEAK 12UTC 10.07.2015 22.0N 148.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.07.2015 22.6N 149.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2015 23.1N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.4N 169.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.07.2015 11.4N 169.5W WEAK 12UTC 10.07.2015 11.7N 171.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.07.2015 11.5N 172.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2015 11.8N 174.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2015 12.3N 176.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2015 12.8N 179.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2015 13.6N 178.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 14.0N 176.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2015 14.4N 174.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2015 14.7N 172.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 15.0N 171.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2015 15.6N 169.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2015 16.8N 168.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.2N 121.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.07.2015 11.2N 121.3W WEAK 00UTC 11.07.2015 11.7N 122.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2015 13.7N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2015 15.0N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2015 16.2N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2015 17.0N 128.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 17.2N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2015 17.6N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2015 18.9N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 19.7N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2015 20.4N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2015 20.9N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.0N 155.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.07.2015 13.4N 155.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.07.2015 14.4N 156.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2015 14.8N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.9N 100.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.07.2015 13.9N 100.9W WEAK 12UTC 12.07.2015 15.5N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2015 16.4N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 17.8N 108.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.07.2015 18.9N 109.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2015 19.5N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 19.7N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2015 19.5N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2015 19.7N 115.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 35.9N 75.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.07.2015 35.9N 75.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.07.2015 35.9N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 36.8N 71.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2015 38.7N 68.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2015 41.9N 63.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100418