000 WTNT80 EGRR 091618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.07.2015 TROPICAL STORM ELA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 145.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.07.2015 20.2N 145.1W MODERATE 00UTC 10.07.2015 21.9N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.07.2015 23.1N 147.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2015 23.7N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2015 24.1N 151.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2015 23.7N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.4N 167.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.07.2015 11.4N 167.9W WEAK 00UTC 10.07.2015 11.3N 169.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.07.2015 11.2N 171.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.07.2015 10.9N 172.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2015 11.1N 174.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2015 11.4N 175.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2015 12.7N 177.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2015 13.6N 179.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 14.4N 177.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2015 15.2N 175.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2015 15.9N 172.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 16.2N 169.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2015 16.4N 168.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 8.5N 105.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.07.2015 8.5N 105.4W WEAK 12UTC 11.07.2015 8.4N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2015 8.7N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2015 9.3N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2015 10.1N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 10.8N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2015 11.4N 116.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2015 12.0N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 13.0N 121.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2015 13.8N 123.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.5N 96.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.07.2015 10.5N 96.3W WEAK 00UTC 12.07.2015 12.0N 97.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2015 13.4N 99.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2015 15.3N 102.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 16.3N 104.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2015 16.2N 104.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2015 16.7N 104.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 18.6N 105.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2015 18.1N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.8N 123.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.07.2015 16.8N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2015 18.3N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 19.4N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2015 20.9N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2015 21.0N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 21.0N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 35.3N 74.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.07.2015 34.5N 73.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2015 34.7N 71.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2015 35.3N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2015 36.9N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2015 39.5N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2015 42.8N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 37.7N 75.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.07.2015 37.7N 75.0W WEAK 00UTC 15.07.2015 38.7N 72.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2015 41.5N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091618