000
WTNT80 EGRR 050417

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.11.2014

        TROPICAL STORM VANCE      ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 108.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 05.11.2014  20.5N 108.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 05.11.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 :  8.9N  98.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 05.11.2014   9.0N 100.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.11.2014  10.1N 102.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.11.2014  11.1N 104.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.11.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 31.8N  79.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 11.11.2014  31.7N  80.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 050417