000 WTNT80 EGRR 020417 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.11.2014 TROPICAL STORM VANCE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 104.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.11.2014 10.2N 104.5W WEAK 12UTC 02.11.2014 11.5N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.11.2014 13.0N 109.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.11.2014 14.6N 111.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.11.2014 16.5N 111.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.11.2014 16.7N 111.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.11.2014 17.0N 111.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.11.2014 18.5N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.11.2014 20.9N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.11.2014 27.4N 111.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.11.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.7N 73.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.11.2014 34.7N 73.7W MODERATE 12UTC 02.11.2014 38.8N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.11.2014 44.3N 64.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.11.2014 48.2N 62.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.11.2014 50.0N 59.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.11.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 11.5N 125.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.11.2014 11.7N 126.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.11.2014 11.3N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.11.2014 11.0N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.11.2014 10.7N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.11.2014 10.5N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.11.2014 9.7N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.11.2014 9.3N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.11.2014 9.2N 135.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.11.2014 8.8N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.11.2014 9.3N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.11.2014 10.2N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.11.2014 11.5N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 9.1N 96.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.11.2014 9.5N 97.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.11.2014 9.9N 101.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.11.2014 12.2N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.11.2014 15.0N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.11.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.5N 163.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.11.2014 11.5N 164.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.11.2014 11.6N 166.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.11.2014 11.7N 167.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.11.2014 11.5N 169.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.11.2014 10.5N 171.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 40.5N 71.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.11.2014 40.5N 71.8W WEAK 12UTC 07.11.2014 43.2N 67.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.11.2014 49.1N 58.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020417