000
WTNT80 EGRR 311617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.10.2014

        TROPICAL STORM VANCE      ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 100.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 31.10.2014  10.3N 100.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 01.11.2014   9.2N 102.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.11.2014   8.6N 103.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.11.2014   9.2N 105.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.11.2014  10.3N 107.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.11.2014  11.5N 110.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.11.2014  13.2N 111.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.11.2014  15.1N 112.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.11.2014  15.7N 111.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.11.2014  16.6N 110.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.11.2014  18.6N 108.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.11.2014  21.3N 107.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.11.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 34.5N  73.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.11.2014  35.4N  72.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.11.2014  37.3N  71.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.11.2014  40.5N  69.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.11.2014  41.7N  68.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.11.2014  42.8N  65.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.11.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 :  9.5N  94.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.11.2014   9.6N  96.8W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 03.11.2014  10.1N 100.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.11.2014  11.5N 103.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.11.2014  14.6N 105.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.11.2014  18.0N 106.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.11.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.4N 125.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.11.2014  11.3N 126.2W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 03.11.2014  11.0N 126.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.11.2014  10.9N 128.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.11.2014  10.7N 130.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.11.2014  10.5N 132.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.11.2014  10.2N 134.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.11.2014  10.2N 137.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.11.2014  10.1N 138.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.11.2014  10.4N 140.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 311617