000 WTNT80 EGRR 300417 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.5N 99.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.10.2014 11.5N 99.3W WEAK 12UTC 30.10.2014 11.1N 100.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.10.2014 10.2N 100.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.10.2014 9.5N 101.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.11.2014 9.0N 102.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.11.2014 8.8N 104.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.11.2014 9.2N 106.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.11.2014 10.1N 109.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.11.2014 11.4N 111.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.11.2014 13.5N 113.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.11.2014 17.1N 112.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.11.2014 20.0N 110.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.11.2014 23.0N 107.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 37.2N 67.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.11.2014 37.2N 67.0W WEAK 12UTC 01.11.2014 42.2N 62.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.11.2014 47.0N 49.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.11.2014 48.4N 35.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.11.2014 46.6N 22.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.11.2014 45.1N 11.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.11.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 36.4N 71.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.11.2014 36.4N 71.2W MODERATE 00UTC 02.11.2014 38.9N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.11.2014 40.9N 68.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.11.2014 47.4N 61.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.11.2014 49.8N 57.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.11.2014 48.4N 57.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.11.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.5N 126.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.11.2014 11.8N 127.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.11.2014 12.1N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.11.2014 11.1N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.11.2014 10.1N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.11.2014 9.4N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.11.2014 8.7N 133.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.11.2014 8.5N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 9.6N 101.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.11.2014 10.2N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.11.2014 11.6N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.11.2014 13.6N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 10.9N 145.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.11.2014 11.0N 146.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.11.2014 11.8N 149.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.11.2014 12.3N 152.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300417