000 WTNT80 EGRR 201617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM ANA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 163.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2014 20.2N 163.2W WEAK 00UTC 21.10.2014 20.4N 165.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2014 20.3N 166.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2014 21.3N 167.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2014 22.1N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 23.7N 168.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 25.1N 169.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2014 26.5N 170.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 28.2N 171.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 30.9N 169.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2014 34.8N 164.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.10.2014 39.8N 156.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2014 43.5N 151.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 19.6N 94.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2014 19.6N 94.0W WEAK 00UTC 22.10.2014 19.8N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2014 19.8N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 19.5N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 19.4N 90.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 19.3N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 19.1N 87.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 20.1N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2014 21.6N 82.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2014 23.8N 79.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2014 26.8N 76.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 18.4N 100.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2014 18.4N 100.7W WEAK 12UTC 22.10.2014 16.6N 101.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 18.7N 100.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 37.0N 69.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2014 37.0N 69.7W WEAK 00UTC 23.10.2014 40.6N 71.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2014 40.8N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 39.5N 71.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 40.1N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 43.0N 62.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2014 44.7N 60.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2014 47.6N 53.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.5N 114.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.10.2014 9.8N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 10.3N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 10.5N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2014 10.4N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2014 10.0N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2014 9.5N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.8N 132.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.10.2014 9.8N 132.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 10.0N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 10.4N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2014 11.0N 133.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2014 11.2N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2014 11.3N 134.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201617