000 WTNT80 EGRR 190417 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.10.2014 HURRICANE ANA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 159.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2014 19.4N 159.1W WEAK 12UTC 19.10.2014 19.7N 160.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2014 19.8N 162.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 20.0N 165.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 20.2N 167.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2014 20.6N 169.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2014 21.3N 170.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2014 21.8N 171.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 22.5N 172.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 23.3N 172.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 24.5N 173.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 25.2N 172.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 25.8N 172.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 41.2N 58.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2014 41.2N 58.4W INTENSE 12UTC 19.10.2014 47.8N 50.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2014 52.4N 37.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.10.2014 53.9N 22.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 99.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2014 16.5N 99.8W WEAK 12UTC 19.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.8N 99.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2014 14.4N 99.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.10.2014 15.2N 99.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 15.9N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 16.3N 103.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 16.1N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 15.9N 103.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 35.9N 73.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2014 37.4N 70.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.10.2014 40.0N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2014 41.0N 73.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 40.1N 70.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 10.7N 130.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2014 10.8N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 10.7N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 10.7N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 10.7N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 9.5N 140.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2014 9.5N 140.1W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190417