000 WTNT80 EGRR 170417 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM ANA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 151.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2014 14.7N 151.4W WEAK 12UTC 17.10.2014 15.9N 153.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 17.0N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 18.2N 158.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 19.2N 159.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 20.0N 160.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2014 20.0N 162.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 20.0N 163.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 20.2N 165.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2014 20.7N 167.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2014 21.2N 168.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2014 21.4N 168.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 22.0N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 27.6N 67.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2014 27.6N 67.8W INTENSE 12UTC 17.10.2014 29.9N 66.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 32.7N 64.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2014 36.1N 62.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2014 41.6N 57.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 47.9N 49.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2014 52.6N 37.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.10.2014 54.5N 21.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.3N 98.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2014 12.3N 98.2W WEAK 12UTC 17.10.2014 14.1N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 14.9N 97.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 15.2N 97.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 24.8N 55.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2014 24.8N 55.0W WEAK 00UTC 20.10.2014 26.5N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 27.7N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 28.1N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 34.8N 72.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2014 36.3N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 38.8N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.5N 100.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2014 15.0N 100.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170417