000 WTNT80 EGRR 151617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM ANA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 146.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2014 14.1N 146.0W WEAK 00UTC 16.10.2014 14.5N 148.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 15.0N 150.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 15.8N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 16.7N 154.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 17.8N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 19.3N 157.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 20.8N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 21.3N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2014 21.6N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 21.9N 161.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 22.5N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2014 22.8N 164.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 67.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2014 23.2N 67.8W MODERATE 00UTC 16.10.2014 24.6N 68.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 26.2N 69.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2014 28.5N 68.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2014 31.3N 66.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2014 35.0N 64.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2014 39.8N 61.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 46.8N 55.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2014 53.1N 45.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2014 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 10.6N 97.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.10.2014 11.1N 98.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.10.2014 12.9N 98.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2014 15.0N 99.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2014 15.8N 100.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 16.2N 99.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 23.9N 49.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.10.2014 24.0N 50.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2014 24.1N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 24.9N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2014 26.5N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 28.2N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 29.0N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2014 29.5N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 18.9N 102.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.10.2014 18.9N 102.4W WEAK 12UTC 20.10.2014 17.9N 102.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 18.3N 100.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 19.5N 94.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.10.2014 19.7N 94.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2014 19.6N 93.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 31.7N 77.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2014 33.0N 75.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO DAYHOURMINUTES