000 WTNT80 EGRR 150600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM ANA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 144.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2014 13.7N 144.7W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2014 14.1N 146.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 14.2N 148.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 14.5N 150.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 15.5N 152.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 16.4N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 17.5N 156.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 18.6N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 20.2N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 21.1N 158.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2014 21.3N 159.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 21.7N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 22.5N 163.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 66.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2014 21.7N 66.0W MODERATE 12UTC 15.10.2014 23.2N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 24.5N 68.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 26.0N 68.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2014 28.0N 67.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2014 30.6N 66.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2014 33.7N 64.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 37.7N 61.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 44.2N 56.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 50.3N 47.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2014 54.0N 33.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2014 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.7N 37.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2014 33.7N 37.4W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2014 33.6N 32.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 35.2N 25.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 37.3N 18.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.1N 98.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.10.2014 10.7N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 12.1N 96.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 14.1N 96.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 14.7N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 15.3N 94.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 24.5N 47.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2014 24.5N 47.2W WEAK 12UTC 18.10.2014 25.2N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 25.3N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 25.0N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2014 24.5N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 24.9N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 19.9N 94.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2014 21.2N 93.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.10.2014 21.3N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.4N 100.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.10.2014 18.4N 100.8W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150424