000 WTNT80 EGRR 121800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 63.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2014 33.4N 63.6W MODERATE 00UTC 13.10.2014 35.5N 58.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 36.2N 51.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2014 35.3N 44.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 34.9N 38.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 34.6N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 35.4N 26.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 38.0N 19.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 42.4N 11.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 16.7N 61.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2014 17.1N 62.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2014 18.0N 63.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 19.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 21.2N 66.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2014 22.6N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2014 23.7N 70.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 24.5N 71.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2014 25.7N 70.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2014 27.4N 69.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 29.3N 67.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2014 31.7N 66.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.4N 140.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2014 12.4N 140.6W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2014 12.9N 141.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 14.2N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 15.0N 144.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 15.3N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 15.5N 148.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 16.1N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 17.0N 152.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 17.7N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 19.5N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 20.9N 155.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.5N 95.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2014 11.5N 95.7W WEAK 00UTC 16.10.2014 12.4N 96.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2014 13.7N 97.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121700