000 WTNT80 EGRR 120600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 65.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2014 30.4N 65.3W MODERATE 12UTC 12.10.2014 33.0N 63.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2014 35.1N 58.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 35.1N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 34.2N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 33.7N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 33.0N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 32.9N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 33.1N 32.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 35.0N 28.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 127.3E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2014 27.7N 127.3E STRONG 12UTC 12.10.2014 29.6N 127.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2014 31.8N 130.0E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 34.2N 135.0E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2014 39.6N 142.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 43.0N 147.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 47.6N 155.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 51.5N 163.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 52.4N 173.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 51.8N 177.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 50.4N 167.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 50.1N 159.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 48.0N 151.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.3N 165.2E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2014 30.3N 165.2E MODERATE 12UTC 12.10.2014 34.7N 169.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.10.2014 38.4N 169.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 40.0N 170.3E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2014 42.1N 175.3E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 43.7N 176.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 16.2N 58.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2014 16.2N 58.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2014 16.6N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2014 17.1N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 18.0N 62.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 19.4N 64.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2014 21.0N 66.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2014 22.2N 68.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 22.8N 70.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 23.4N 71.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2014 24.3N 71.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2014 26.1N 70.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2014 28.4N 68.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 11.5N 138.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2014 11.8N 139.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 12.4N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 13.3N 141.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 14.5N 143.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 15.1N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 15.3N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 15.2N 147.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 15.7N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 16.5N 149.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 17.2N 151.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 17.9N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.2N 95.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2014 12.2N 95.7W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2014 12.1N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 13.7N 98.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2014 14.8N 101.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 14.8N 102.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 15.3N 103.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 15.8N 104.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.6N 44.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2014 16.6N 44.3W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2014 17.7N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 18.3N 45.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 18.1N 44.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 19.2N 44.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 19.7N 43.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2014 20.3N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120423