000 WTNT80 EGRR 111800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 65.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2014 27.7N 65.2W MODERATE 00UTC 12.10.2014 30.7N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2014 33.4N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2014 35.5N 57.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 35.7N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 34.9N 47.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 34.3N 42.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 33.7N 38.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 33.7N 33.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 36.5N 25.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 10.5N 136.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2014 10.9N 138.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2014 12.0N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2014 13.1N 141.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2014 14.7N 142.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 16.1N 144.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 17.1N 146.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 17.6N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 18.4N 149.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 19.2N 150.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 20.2N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 20.6N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.0N 59.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2014 17.0N 59.3W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2014 17.2N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2014 17.3N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 18.0N 63.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 19.2N 65.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2014 20.8N 66.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2014 22.1N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 22.9N 70.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 23.5N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2014 24.5N 71.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2014 26.2N 70.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.2N 95.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2014 12.2N 95.0W WEAK 12UTC 16.10.2014 13.5N 94.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 13.5N 93.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2014 13.0N 93.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 19.4N 93.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2014 19.4N 93.6W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111648