000 WTNT80 EGRR 110600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 63.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2014 25.1N 63.6W WEAK 12UTC 11.10.2014 27.7N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2014 30.9N 64.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2014 33.6N 62.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2014 35.7N 57.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2014 35.9N 50.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 34.9N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 34.3N 40.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 33.8N 35.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 34.9N 29.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 37.3N 23.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 28.0N 159.3E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2014 28.0N 159.3E WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2014 30.4N 165.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.10.2014 34.6N 169.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.10.2014 39.0N 169.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 39.7N 170.1E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2014 41.4N 174.5E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 43.6N 178.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 16.4N 58.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2014 16.4N 58.9W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2014 16.6N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2014 16.7N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 17.4N 63.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 18.6N 64.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2014 20.4N 65.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 21.9N 68.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2014 23.1N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 24.6N 70.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 27.0N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.7N 140.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2014 11.7N 140.7W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2014 12.2N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 13.7N 143.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 15.2N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 16.2N 145.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 16.4N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 16.7N 148.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 17.2N 149.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 17.8N 150.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 8.5N 172.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2014 8.5N 172.6W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2014 9.5N 172.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 11.5N 172.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 12.5N 171.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 13.5N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.0N 43.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2014 17.0N 43.6W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2014 17.3N 43.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 17.7N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2014 18.2N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2014 17.5N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110426