000 WTNT80 EGRR 091800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2014 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 22.1N 61.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2014 22.1N 61.1W WEAK 12UTC 10.10.2014 24.3N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2014 26.5N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2014 29.0N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2014 32.2N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2014 35.1N 59.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2014 38.5N 51.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 41.6N 40.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2014 49.2N 31.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 38.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2014 12.5N 38.2W WEAK 12UTC 12.10.2014 13.7N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2014 14.6N 40.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2014 15.6N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 16.0N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 15.9N 44.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 16.1N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 16.1N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.2N 57.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2014 18.2N 57.6W WEAK 12UTC 12.10.2014 18.0N 59.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2014 17.6N 61.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 17.4N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 18.0N 65.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 19.5N 67.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2014 21.6N 69.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2014 23.4N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.3N 139.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2014 11.3N 139.4W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2014 11.2N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 12.4N 143.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 13.5N 146.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 14.4N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 15.1N 150.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.8N 93.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2014 11.8N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 11.8N 96.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 12.2N 99.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091719