000 WTNT80 EGRR 050600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.10.2014 HURRICANE SIMON ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 115.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2014 20.7N 115.8W MODERATE 12UTC 05.10.2014 22.0N 117.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 23.4N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2014 23.9N 118.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2014 24.8N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2014 26.0N 117.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2014 27.1N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2014 28.1N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2014 34.2N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TYPHOON PHANFONE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 131.2E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2014 29.1N 131.2E INTENSE 12UTC 05.10.2014 31.6N 133.5E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2014 35.4N 139.4E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.10.2014 39.6N 148.8E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2014 40.5N 158.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2014 42.4N 173.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2014 45.9N 178.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.10.2014 48.0N 173.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2014 48.2N 172.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2014 48.9N 167.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2014 50.5N 161.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2014 52.4N 155.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2014 54.7N 150.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.7N 134.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2014 13.1N 134.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2014 12.7N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2014 12.3N 137.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2014 12.4N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2014 12.8N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2014 13.7N 141.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2014 14.0N 142.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2014 14.6N 143.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.6N 89.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2014 10.6N 89.7W WEAK 12UTC 10.10.2014 11.0N 91.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2014 11.2N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050510