000
WTNT80 EGRR 041800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2014

             HURRICANE SIMON      ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 113.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.10.2014  19.5N 113.9W   MODERATE
 00UTC 05.10.2014  20.4N 115.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2014  22.0N 117.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2014  23.4N 118.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2014  24.0N 118.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.10.2014  24.8N 118.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.10.2014  25.6N 119.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.10.2014  26.0N 118.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.10.2014  26.5N 118.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.10.2014  27.0N 116.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.10.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.0N 132.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.10.2014  12.1N 133.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 07.10.2014  12.1N 134.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.10.2014  12.3N 135.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.10.2014  11.9N 137.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.10.2014  12.3N 140.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.10.2014  12.6N 141.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.10.2014  12.7N 143.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.10.2014  13.4N 143.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 :  9.9N  88.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 09.10.2014   9.9N  88.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 09.10.2014  10.2N  89.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.10.2014  10.1N  91.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.10.2014  10.7N  92.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 041652