000 WTNT80 EGRR 020600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 105.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2014 17.2N 105.4W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2014 17.7N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2014 18.0N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2014 18.0N 110.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2014 18.4N 112.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 19.8N 113.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 21.5N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 23.4N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 24.6N 116.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2014 25.7N 116.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2014 25.9N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2014 27.1N 116.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2014 32.0N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 37.1N 51.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2014 38.1N 50.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2014 40.2N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2014 42.3N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2014 43.8N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 45.6N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 47.2N 31.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 37.1N 67.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2014 37.1N 67.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2014 36.8N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2014 38.1N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 39.5N 61.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 39.7N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 40.6N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 35.9N 54.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2014 35.8N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2014 38.5N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 39.0N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.2N 130.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2014 11.2N 130.4W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2014 11.8N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 12.6N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 13.0N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 12.9N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2014 12.9N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2014 12.6N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2014 12.3N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2014 12.0N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.9N 102.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.10.2014 18.9N 102.2W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020425