000 WTNT80 EGRR 010600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 117.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2014 22.6N 117.2W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2014 22.3N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.2N 72.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2014 30.2N 72.8W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2014 30.7N 69.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2014 31.4N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2014 33.0N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2014 34.4N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2014 35.1N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2014 36.5N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 39.2N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 43.2N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 46.2N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 49.5N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2014 52.6N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 36.4N 64.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2014 36.4N 64.4W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2014 39.0N 62.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2014 40.6N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2014 40.5N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2014 40.9N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2014 40.9N 62.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2014 39.9N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 39.1N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 39.2N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 40.5N 57.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 42.4N 54.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 17.1N 108.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2014 17.2N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2014 18.2N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2014 19.5N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 20.4N 114.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2014 22.0N 116.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 23.7N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 25.2N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2014 26.0N 118.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2014 26.7N 118.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.5N 130.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2014 11.5N 130.6W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2014 11.6N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 12.0N 130.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 12.7N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 12.9N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2014 12.9N 129.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2014 12.8N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.0N 17.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2014 13.1N 18.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 13.8N 21.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 14.5N 25.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 14.5N 28.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2014 14.9N 30.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2014 15.2N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010551