000
WTNT80 EGRR 301800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2014

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL     ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 117.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.09.2014  23.0N 117.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 01.10.2014  22.6N 117.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2014  22.3N 117.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.5N  64.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.09.2014  34.5N  64.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 01.10.2014  36.7N  64.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2014  39.5N  61.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2014  40.9N  59.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2014  40.2N  58.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2014  39.9N  58.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2014  39.6N  59.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2014  40.3N  60.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2014  38.5N  62.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2014  39.3N  61.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 17.3N 107.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.10.2014  17.2N 108.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 03.10.2014  18.8N 109.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2014  19.8N 111.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2014  21.0N 114.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2014  22.3N 115.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2014  23.7N 116.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2014  24.5N 117.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2014  25.1N 117.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.9N 129.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.10.2014  12.1N 129.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.10.2014  13.1N 129.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2014  14.1N 130.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2014  14.9N 130.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2014  15.2N 131.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.2N  17.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.10.2014  13.2N  17.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 05.10.2014  13.6N  19.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2014  14.0N  22.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2014  14.4N  25.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2014  14.6N  28.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 301634