000 WTNT80 EGRR 300600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.09.2014 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 117.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2014 23.4N 117.6W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2014 23.5N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2014 23.7N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2014 23.5N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.4N 65.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2014 32.4N 65.9W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2014 34.5N 65.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2014 37.5N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2014 40.4N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2014 41.6N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2014 41.6N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2014 40.7N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2014 40.0N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2014 40.1N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 40.4N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 40.1N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 40.0N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.8N 101.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2014 14.5N 101.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2014 16.0N 102.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2014 16.9N 104.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2014 18.2N 105.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2014 19.9N 107.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2014 21.7N 109.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2014 22.7N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 23.5N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 24.1N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 24.9N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 34.4N 41.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2014 33.9N 41.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2014 33.0N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2014 32.5N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 32.2N 54.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2014 32.0N 53.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2014 31.5N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2014 30.7N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2014 31.8N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.2N 129.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2014 12.4N 129.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2014 14.0N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 14.2N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 14.5N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.5N 17.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2014 13.5N 17.2W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2014 13.8N 19.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2014 14.2N 23.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2014 14.3N 26.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300441