000 WTNT80 EGRR 100600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2014 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 14.2N 103.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2014 14.2N 103.5W WEAK 00UTC 11.09.2014 15.1N 104.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2014 15.7N 105.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2014 16.3N 105.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2014 17.2N 106.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2014 17.5N 108.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2014 17.6N 108.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2014 18.4N 110.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2014 19.9N 111.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2014 21.5N 113.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2014 22.8N 114.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2014 24.0N 115.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.6N 118.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2014 14.6N 118.0W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2014 15.9N 118.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2014 16.2N 116.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2014 15.9N 115.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.3N 35.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2014 15.5N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2014 17.1N 38.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2014 18.4N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 19.5N 42.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2014 20.9N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2014 22.3N 45.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2014 23.4N 47.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2014 24.8N 49.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2014 26.3N 50.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2014 28.3N 50.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.8N 126.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2014 13.2N 126.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2014 14.7N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 15.1N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2014 15.3N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2014 14.8N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2014 14.2N 121.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2014 14.1N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 15.5N 115.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.9N 132.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2014 11.2N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2014 11.2N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2014 11.7N 131.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2014 12.0N 131.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 12.2N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2014 12.5N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.2N 171.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2014 14.0N 172.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2014 14.9N 173.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 16.4N 175.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2014 17.8N 177.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 25.2N 85.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2014 25.4N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 26.6N 87.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2014 27.1N 87.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.5N 99.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2014 12.7N 100.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100434