000 WTNT80 EGRR 071800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2014 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 116.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2014 25.8N 116.6W STRONG 00UTC 08.09.2014 26.7N 117.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2014 27.6N 118.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2014 28.5N 118.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2014 28.9N 117.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.6N 123.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2014 11.6N 123.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.09.2014 11.7N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 11.5N 125.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2014 12.1N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 13.8N 127.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2014 15.5N 128.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2014 16.7N 129.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2014 17.2N 129.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2014 17.2N 129.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 8.0N 173.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2014 8.0N 173.7W WEAK 00UTC 10.09.2014 9.2N 173.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 10.9N 173.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2014 12.6N 175.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 13.3N 178.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2014 14.0N 178.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2014 14.8N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 15.4N 179.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2014 15.4N 177.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.5N 29.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2014 13.5N 29.3W WEAK 12UTC 10.09.2014 14.0N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2014 15.9N 33.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2014 17.0N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2014 18.4N 37.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2014 19.6N 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 21.2N 41.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.09.2014 22.1N 43.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.3N 100.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2014 18.3N 100.6W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2014 17.5N 103.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2014 17.3N 104.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2014 16.3N 105.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2014 15.8N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2014 15.9N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071702