000 WTNT80 EGRR 060600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.09.2014 HURRICANE NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 112.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2014 23.9N 112.8W STRONG 12UTC 06.09.2014 25.0N 113.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2014 25.8N 115.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2014 26.4N 116.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2014 27.0N 117.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2014 27.6N 118.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2014 28.2N 118.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2014 28.3N 117.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 34.0N 77.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.09.2014 34.0N 77.9W WEAK 12UTC 09.09.2014 36.2N 74.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.09.2014 37.4N 72.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 38.4N 70.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2014 39.2N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 40.0N 68.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2014 40.9N 67.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.8N 99.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2014 14.4N 100.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.09.2014 15.8N 102.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.09.2014 17.3N 103.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.09.2014 18.5N 105.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2014 18.8N 106.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2014 18.5N 106.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 8.2N 174.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2014 8.2N 174.0W WEAK 00UTC 10.09.2014 9.3N 174.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 10.2N 174.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2014 11.9N 176.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 12.6N 177.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2014 13.6N 178.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.0N 129.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2014 12.0N 129.6W WEAK 12UTC 10.09.2014 11.8N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2014 12.0N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 12.2N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2014 12.7N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.7N 31.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2014 12.7N 31.8W WEAK 00UTC 11.09.2014 13.2N 33.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 15.0N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2014 16.6N 37.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.7N 176.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2014 11.7N 176.8W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2014 12.6N 177.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2014 13.6N 178.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060502