000 WTNT80 EGRR 051800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.09.2014 HURRICANE NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 112.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2014 22.8N 112.1W INTENSE 00UTC 06.09.2014 23.4N 113.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.09.2014 24.1N 114.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.09.2014 24.8N 115.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2014 25.3N 117.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2014 25.7N 117.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2014 26.3N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2014 26.8N 118.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2014 27.1N 118.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2014 26.8N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 26.1N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2014 25.1N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 37.4N 22.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2014 37.4N 22.9W WEAK 12UTC 08.09.2014 38.4N 20.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2014 38.8N 19.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2014 39.1N 19.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2014 40.2N 17.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 41.5N 16.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2014 44.0N 15.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 47.5N 16.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.3N 104.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2014 13.7N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2014 14.5N 105.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2014 15.5N 105.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.09.2014 16.1N 105.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2014 16.8N 106.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 35.1N 75.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2014 35.1N 75.9W WEAK 00UTC 10.09.2014 37.3N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 38.5N 72.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2014 39.3N 70.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2014 40.2N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.9N 27.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2014 13.4N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 14.1N 31.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2014 15.2N 33.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2014 17.0N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 9.9N 176.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2014 11.0N 177.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2014 11.5N 178.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2014 11.5N 180.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.8N 129.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2014 11.1N 130.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 19.0N 61.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2014 20.0N 62.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051629