000 WTNT80 EGRR 041800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2014 HURRICANE NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 110.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2014 20.5N 110.4W STRONG 00UTC 05.09.2014 21.5N 110.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2014 22.8N 111.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.09.2014 23.9N 112.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2014 24.8N 113.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2014 25.4N 114.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2014 26.0N 116.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.09.2014 26.5N 117.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2014 27.2N 119.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2014 27.9N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2014 28.1N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2014 27.9N 120.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2014 27.6N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.1N 28.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2014 14.1N 28.7W WEAK 00UTC 07.09.2014 14.6N 31.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2014 14.5N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2014 14.6N 36.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2014 15.5N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 36.3N 20.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2014 36.3N 20.1W WEAK 00UTC 09.09.2014 36.1N 16.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2014 39.5N 15.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2014 40.1N 14.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2014 42.0N 13.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.1N 172.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.09.2014 12.5N 173.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2014 12.9N 175.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2014 12.9N 175.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 13.3N 178.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 34.0N 76.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2014 35.5N 75.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2014 36.8N 73.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2014 38.4N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.4N 27.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2014 12.4N 27.3W WEAK 12UTC 10.09.2014 12.9N 29.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 31.5N 55.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2014 31.5N 55.5W WEAK 12UTC 10.09.2014 32.9N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.6N 106.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2014 14.6N 106.8W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041651