000
WTNT80 EGRR 031800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2014

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY      ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N  98.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.09.2014  22.0N  98.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.09.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM NORBERT    ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 108.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.09.2014  19.2N 108.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.09.2014  20.0N 109.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 04.09.2014  20.5N 111.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2014  21.2N 111.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2014  22.3N 112.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2014  23.4N 113.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 06.09.2014  23.8N 114.8W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2014  24.4N 116.0W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 07.09.2014  25.0N 117.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2014  25.7N 118.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2014  26.5N 120.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2014  27.2N 120.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 09.09.2014  27.9N 120.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.6N  25.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 06.09.2014  13.6N  25.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 06.09.2014  15.1N  28.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2014  15.7N  30.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2014  16.3N  33.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2014  16.6N  36.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2014  17.3N  39.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2014  18.2N  43.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2014  19.0N  47.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 32.0N  80.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2014  32.0N  80.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2014  32.1N  79.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2014  33.4N  78.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2014  34.8N  76.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 09.09.2014  37.6N  74.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 10.9N 169.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 08.09.2014  10.8N 169.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2014  11.0N 170.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2014  11.5N 171.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2014  12.1N 172.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.0N  94.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 09.09.2014  12.0N  94.5W     WEAK
 12UTC 09.09.2014  13.2N  95.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE
 EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 031641