000 WTNT80 EGRR 030600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.09.2014 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 97.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2014 21.8N 97.4W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2014 22.2N 98.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 106.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.09.2014 18.5N 106.5W WEAK 12UTC 03.09.2014 19.2N 108.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2014 19.8N 110.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.09.2014 20.3N 111.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2014 20.9N 112.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2014 21.6N 112.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2014 22.4N 113.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2014 22.8N 115.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2014 23.1N 117.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2014 23.4N 118.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2014 24.3N 120.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2014 25.2N 121.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2014 25.8N 122.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.0N 22.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2014 13.0N 22.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.09.2014 13.6N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2014 13.7N 27.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2014 14.2N 30.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2014 14.9N 33.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.09.2014 15.6N 36.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2014 16.3N 39.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2014 17.0N 42.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 10.1N 88.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2014 10.4N 90.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.09.2014 11.1N 91.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2014 11.8N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2014 12.6N 94.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 29.5N 48.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2014 30.0N 49.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2014 30.8N 49.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2014 32.3N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.1N 26.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2014 36.4N 24.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2014 35.5N 21.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2014 35.7N 20.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 32.8N 76.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2014 33.3N 76.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2014 33.7N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030527