000
WTNT80 EGRR 251800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.08.2014

        TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL  ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N  72.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 25.08.2014  24.8N  72.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 26.08.2014  25.5N  71.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.08.2014  27.7N  71.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 27.08.2014  30.2N  71.3W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 27.08.2014  32.9N  71.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 28.08.2014  35.4N  69.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.08.2014  38.2N  65.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 29.08.2014  41.2N  57.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 29.08.2014  46.1N  50.6W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 30.08.2014  POST-TROPICAL

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA     ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 128.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 25.08.2014  17.6N 128.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 26.08.2014  17.5N 127.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.08.2014  16.6N 127.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.08.2014        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE MARIE      ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 114.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132014

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 25.08.2014  17.5N 114.6W   MODERATE
 00UTC 26.08.2014  18.4N 116.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.08.2014  19.8N 118.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.08.2014  21.3N 120.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.08.2014  22.5N 123.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.08.2014  23.7N 125.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 28.08.2014  25.2N 128.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.08.2014  27.0N 130.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 29.08.2014  29.0N 131.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.08.2014  30.8N 131.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.08.2014  31.7N 131.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.08.2014  31.8N 130.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.08.2014  30.8N 130.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.7N  95.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 30.08.2014  27.4N  95.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.08.2014  29.6N  93.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 31.08.2014         BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE
 EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 251712