000 WTNT80 EGRR 241800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 72.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2014 23.0N 72.4W WEAK 00UTC 25.08.2014 24.4N 73.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 25.0N 72.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 25.7N 72.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 27.4N 72.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 30.2N 72.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 32.0N 73.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 33.6N 71.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2014 35.2N 68.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2014 37.2N 61.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2014 41.7N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2014 45.8N 53.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2014 45.9N 52.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 131.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2014 17.6N 131.5W MODERATE 00UTC 25.08.2014 17.7N 129.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 17.6N 128.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 17.1N 127.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 15.8N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 110.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2014 15.8N 110.6W STRONG 00UTC 25.08.2014 16.7N 112.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 17.6N 114.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 18.7N 116.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 20.0N 118.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 21.2N 121.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 22.0N 124.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2014 23.3N 126.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2014 24.7N 128.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2014 26.6N 130.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2014 28.9N 131.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2014 30.8N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2014 32.0N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 15.6N 143.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.08.2014 15.9N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 15.2N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 14.6N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 25.2N 127.8W 00UTC 25.08.2014 25.0N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 26.0N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 26.3N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 27.0N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 29.0N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 31.0N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2014 32.0N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 33.5N 140.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2014 34.5N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2014 34.7N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2014 34.7N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2014 34.0N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241635