000 WTNT80 EGRR 231800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.08.2014 HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 134.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2014 16.9N 134.4W MODERATE 00UTC 24.08.2014 17.5N 133.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 17.5N 131.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 17.4N 129.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 17.5N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 17.5N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 17.0N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 16.2N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 15.2N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 23.7N 126.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2014 23.7N 126.2W MODERATE 00UTC 24.08.2014 24.6N 127.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 25.4N 128.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 25.5N 129.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 26.0N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 26.3N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 27.6N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 29.6N 138.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 31.3N 140.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 32.1N 142.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 32.9N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2014 34.4N 143.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2014 36.2N 142.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 106.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2014 14.8N 106.4W MODERATE 00UTC 24.08.2014 15.5N 109.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 15.8N 111.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 16.4N 113.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 17.2N 115.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 18.5N 117.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 19.9N 119.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 20.5N 121.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 21.4N 123.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 22.5N 126.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 23.9N 128.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2014 25.4N 130.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2014 27.2N 132.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.0N 146.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 13.7N 147.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 14.5N 146.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 15.2N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 15.5N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 14.7N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 14.0N 140.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 13.8N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 13.2N 138.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2014 12.8N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 22.3N 73.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.08.2014 22.8N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 23.6N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 23.5N 74.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 23.5N 75.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 24.0N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 25.1N 79.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 26.6N 82.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 27.6N 84.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2014 28.8N 86.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2014 30.5N 86.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.08.2014 33.0N 85.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 16.6N 60.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2014 16.6N 60.1W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2014 17.9N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231624