000 WTNT80 EGRR 230600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.08.2014 HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 134.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2014 15.7N 134.8W MODERATE 12UTC 23.08.2014 16.7N 134.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2014 17.0N 132.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 17.2N 130.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 17.4N 128.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 125.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2014 22.8N 125.1W STRONG 12UTC 23.08.2014 23.7N 126.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 24.6N 127.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 25.2N 128.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 25.3N 130.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 25.3N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 25.9N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 27.0N 137.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 28.5N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 29.9N 142.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 30.6N 144.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2014 31.9N 145.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2014 32.9N 145.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 104.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2014 13.5N 104.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2014 13.9N 107.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 15.0N 109.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 16.1N 111.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 16.2N 114.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 17.0N 116.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 18.4N 118.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 19.2N 120.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 19.8N 122.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 20.7N 124.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2014 21.7N 126.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 23.0N 129.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2014 24.5N 131.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.7N 147.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2014 12.7N 147.7W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2014 13.5N 147.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 14.1N 146.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 15.1N 144.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 15.0N 142.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 14.3N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 13.9N 139.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.2N 72.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 21.2N 72.4W WEAK 12UTC 24.08.2014 22.7N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 23.5N 74.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 23.5N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 24.6N 74.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 26.5N 75.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 28.2N 76.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 29.8N 78.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2014 31.2N 79.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.08.2014 32.8N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2014 34.1N 77.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.9N 47.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2014 15.9N 47.3W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2014 16.1N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 16.4N 55.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 16.6N 58.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 17.3N 61.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2014 18.3N 64.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230524