000 WTNT80 EGRR 211800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 136.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2014 15.5N 136.9W MODERATE 00UTC 22.08.2014 15.0N 136.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 15.1N 136.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2014 16.0N 135.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2014 16.8N 134.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2014 17.5N 133.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 17.8N 131.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 18.3N 130.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 19.2N 130.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 20.3N 130.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 21.3N 132.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 22.0N 133.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 121.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2014 19.7N 121.7W MODERATE 00UTC 22.08.2014 20.9N 122.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2014 21.9N 123.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 23.1N 125.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2014 24.0N 126.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 25.2N 127.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 26.3N 129.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 27.1N 130.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 28.4N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 29.8N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 31.7N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 34.0N 138.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 35.9N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.7N 147.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2014 12.6N 148.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 12.7N 147.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2014 13.8N 147.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 14.8N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 15.9N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 15.9N 144.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 15.6N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 15.6N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 15.8N 140.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 16.0N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.7N 104.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2014 13.0N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 13.4N 108.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 14.3N 110.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 15.2N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 15.7N 115.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 16.5N 117.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 17.9N 119.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 18.7N 121.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 19.2N 123.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 19.8N 125.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.7N 71.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 20.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 20.9N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 21.6N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 22.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 22.6N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 23.2N 81.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 23.3N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 24.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 34.8N 71.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 34.3N 69.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 34.2N 64.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 36.3N 59.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 38.0N 54.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 38.7N 49.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 39.1N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 38.3N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 37.3N 37.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.1N 48.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.08.2014 16.1N 48.0W WEAK 00UTC 27.08.2014 17.1N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 17.1N 56.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211708