000 WTNT80 EGRR 200600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 135.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.6N 135.6W MODERATE 12UTC 20.08.2014 15.3N 136.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.08.2014 15.7N 136.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 15.9N 137.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 16.1N 137.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2014 16.5N 136.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 136.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2014 18.9N 135.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 19.8N 135.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 19.9N 135.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 19.5N 134.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 20.0N 132.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 20.7N 132.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 120.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2014 18.1N 120.7W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2014 18.8N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 19.5N 121.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 19.4N 121.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 21.0N 122.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2014 22.1N 123.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 23.4N 124.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 24.3N 125.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 25.2N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 26.5N 127.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 28.1N 128.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 30.0N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 32.2N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.0N 144.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2014 14.0N 144.3W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2014 14.1N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 14.1N 145.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 12.9N 145.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2014 12.6N 144.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 12.3N 143.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2014 13.0N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 14.1N 139.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2014 18.7N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 19.9N 135.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 19.5N 134.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 20.0N 132.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 20.7N 132.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 10.3N 159.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.08.2014 10.6N 160.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 10.9N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 11.9N 162.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2014 12.1N 164.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 12.7N 165.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 16.0N 57.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2014 16.0N 57.1W WEAK 00UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 60.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 63.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 16.9N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 17.5N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 18.8N 71.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 19.6N 74.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 20.1N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 20.5N 78.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 21.0N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.1N 104.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2014 13.9N 106.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2014 14.5N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2014 15.1N 111.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 15.5N 113.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 16.5N 116.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 16.8N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 17.5N 121.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.1N 35.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2014 13.1N 35.4W WEAK 12UTC 25.08.2014 13.8N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 14.5N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200456