000 WTNT80 EGRR 191800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 134.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2014 15.4N 134.3W WEAK 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.2N 135.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 15.1N 135.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2014 15.3N 135.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 15.4N 135.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 135.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 16.8N 134.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 17.9N 132.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 18.3N 131.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2014 19.0N 128.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 21.2N 127.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 24.4N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 119.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2014 17.6N 119.5W WEAK 00UTC 20.08.2014 18.7N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 19.1N 120.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2014 20.1N 121.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 21.0N 121.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 22.3N 122.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 22.8N 124.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 23.6N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 24.8N 126.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 26.1N 127.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 27.7N 128.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 28.4N 130.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 28.1N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.5N 143.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2014 14.5N 143.8W WEAK 00UTC 20.08.2014 13.8N 144.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 13.5N 144.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 13.2N 144.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 12.0N 144.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2014 12.1N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 12.2N 143.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 13.1N 141.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2014 14.6N 140.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 16.0N 139.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 16.6N 139.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 16.5N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 16.1N 136.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.0N 53.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2014 12.1N 53.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 14.6N 55.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2014 16.5N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.08.2014 16.8N 66.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2014 17.6N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 18.2N 71.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 19.5N 75.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 19.6N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 20.9N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.5N 103.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.08.2014 12.5N 103.5W WEAK 00UTC 23.08.2014 13.5N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 13.7N 109.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 14.6N 112.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 15.1N 114.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 16.5N 116.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 17.6N 119.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.3N 57.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.08.2014 36.3N 57.3W WEAK 12UTC 23.08.2014 37.5N 52.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2014 39.3N 47.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 41.0N 42.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 41.8N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 41.3N 30.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191746