000 WTNT80 EGRR 181800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 131.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2014 16.5N 131.7W MODERATE 00UTC 19.08.2014 15.6N 132.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2014 15.3N 133.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.4N 134.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 15.6N 134.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 16.4N 134.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 17.0N 135.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 17.6N 135.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 18.0N 135.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 19.3N 135.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.08.2014 20.1N 135.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.08.2014 20.6N 135.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 20.8N 136.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 117.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2014 15.8N 117.3W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2014 17.1N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 17.2N 120.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 17.9N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 19.0N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 21.0N 121.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 21.6N 121.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 22.9N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 23.0N 123.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 24.0N 124.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 25.1N 124.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 26.3N 125.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 27.3N 125.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.0N 36.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2014 12.8N 37.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 14.3N 40.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 14.9N 44.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.6N 52.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.08.2014 12.2N 52.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 13.5N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2014 15.9N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 61.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.08.2014 17.0N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 66.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 19.5N 68.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 21.3N 70.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 109.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2014 13.3N 111.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.08.2014 13.7N 112.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.08.2014 14.5N 114.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.9N 71.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2014 34.9N 71.6W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2014 34.0N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2014 35.2N 64.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181640