000 WTNT80 EGRR 161800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 123.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2014 18.1N 123.8W WEAK 00UTC 17.08.2014 18.1N 126.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2014 17.8N 128.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 17.0N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 16.2N 131.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 15.2N 132.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2014 14.8N 132.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.0N 131.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.7N 129.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2014 19.9N 129.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 19.3N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2014 19.6N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.08.2014 19.7N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.7N 139.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2014 13.7N 139.8W WEAK 00UTC 17.08.2014 14.6N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 15.4N 140.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 15.7N 141.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 15.4N 141.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 15.2N 141.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 14.9N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 14.4N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 13.9N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 13.5N 143.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 13.3N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2014 13.2N 141.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2014 13.4N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 11.3N 157.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2014 11.3N 158.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 10.5N 159.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 10.4N 159.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 10.3N 160.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 10.7N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 11.3N 162.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 11.5N 162.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 12.0N 162.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 11.8N 163.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.9N 142.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2014 14.9N 142.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 14.4N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 13.9N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 13.5N 143.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 13.3N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.08.2014 13.2N 141.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2014 13.4N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.3N 116.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2014 18.3N 116.6W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2014 17.1N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 16.9N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 17.2N 117.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 17.8N 118.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.08.2014 18.9N 119.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161630