000 WTNT80 EGRR 151800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.08.2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO ANALYSED POSITION : 32.2N 157.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2014 32.2N 157.8W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2014 33.0N 157.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 33.4N 158.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 34.4N 157.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 36.1N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 120.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2014 17.5N 120.0W MODERATE 00UTC 16.08.2014 18.0N 122.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2014 18.1N 124.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 18.1N 126.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2014 18.0N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2014 17.5N 130.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 16.7N 132.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2014 16.1N 133.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 15.5N 135.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.4N 135.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 15.7N 135.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 16.6N 134.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 17.2N 133.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.3N 139.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2014 13.3N 139.1W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2014 13.4N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 13.8N 140.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 14.5N 141.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.08.2014 15.1N 141.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 15.5N 142.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 15.7N 143.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 15.8N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 15.9N 145.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.1N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 14.7N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 14.4N 148.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 13.8N 149.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.1N 18.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2014 14.1N 18.6W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2014 15.0N 19.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2014 15.7N 20.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.6N 114.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2014 13.6N 114.5W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2014 13.8N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 15.1N 118.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.7N 120.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.3N 121.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 16.6N 121.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 17.7N 122.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.5N 40.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.08.2014 14.0N 41.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.3N 45.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.2N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 17.2N 55.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 18.3N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.2N 94.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.08.2014 10.2N 94.7W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151643